Thursday, October 25, 2018

Sydney’s Future. Will It Perform As Well As It Did In 2013-2015?

Where we’re at right now in Sydney and and look, we’re probably into our 11th, 12th, 13th month depending on what suburb you’re looking at, have a probably categorized sideways if not some declines in certain markets in Sydney and to what, to be honest, Melbourne’s only probably six months behind the same trend and we expect them to run more or less pretty similar correlations over the of the forthcoming cycle. We’ve got a big issue with a income to debt ratio and we’re sitting anywhere between eight and 10 times annual income to debt ratio. Historically we see that needs to be sitting well below probably six, six and a half times to see opportunity to grow. That’s part of that equation is wages growth. We don’t have an issue with with jobs at the moment and I don’t think over the next five years in Sydney specifically, especially in some of these really big infrastructure project corridors from the southwest to the west and even part of the up, the guts through in a west, et cetera.

There’s jobs, jobs galore and well paid jobs, white collar, blue collar, right across the board, skilled and unskilled. So I think the jobs are going to be there. The issue is affordability in conjunction with people being able to borrow money. So I think we need two things to start seeing this wave come back is one of which is wage growth, to see that debt debt to income ratio reduce. And the second, I think the second one is probably going to be that there’s going to have to be a restricted amount of supply consistently given to the market because we’re also going through this apartment building boom in Sydney is not a probably, i would say, they’re not going to be spared in certain areas. It’s not right across the board. We’ve got a lot of population growth, but we’re also got alot of construction. So I think we’re probably three to four years for those apartments really going through the market and then getting back to probably what I would deem to be an elite and an equilibrium position where you’ve got a deficit which we had for the previous 10 years in addition to a ramp up of wage growth and then cheaper money.

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